Near-Familiar
0x6139c42e48cf190e67a0a85d492413b499336b7a
Near-Familiar: −$3.0K on 5 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 40% (95% range 12%–77%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Profit
−$3.0K
return −22.4%
Settled bets
5
$13K staked
Won
40.0%
95% range 12%–77%
Mostly bets on
politics/macro
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 4 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by 2 weeks
- Aug 20 – Sep 4
- +$5.0K
- Sep 4 – Sep 20
- −$8.0K
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0%
(2,053 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9 | BUY Yes
@ 7¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31? |
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31? | $1.5K |
| Oct 6 | BUY No
@ 64¢
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31? |
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31? | $4.6K |
| Oct 5 | BUY No
@ 64¢
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31? |
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31? | $1.0K |
| Oct 5 | BUY No
@ 81¢
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31? |
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31? | $4.0K |
| Oct 2 | BUY No
@ 81¢
Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31? |
Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31? | $4.2K |
| Sep 22 | SELL Yes
@ 17¢
Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026? |
Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026? | $2.4K |
| Sep 19 | BUY Yes
@ 20¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? |
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? | $1.1K |
| Sep 19 | BUY No
@ 26¢
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? |
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | $6.5K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.