Polymarket market · Other

US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?

Open as of the last weekly run · See it on Polymarket ↗

17 whales put $119K into this market since Oct 1, 84% of their buying on Yes. It hadn't resolved as of the last weekly run.

The whales on this market

17 whales
Whale · recordBackedBoughtSold
Grounded-Depression
30 settled bets Can't tell from luck
Yes @ 91¢ $31K $5.8K
Circular-Zampone
1 settled bets Too few bets
Yes @ 87¢ $18K $6.3K
0xb5b8…f0cb
no settled record
Yes @ 81¢ $1.4K $11K
Agile-Chatter
14 settled bets Can't tell from luck
Yes @ 91¢ $1.4K $8.7K
Peppery-Capital
21 settled bets Can't tell from luck
Yes @ 92¢ $9.5K —
0xfb59…83f9
no settled record
Yes @ 87¢ $5.5K —
Glaring-Inspiration
4 settled bets Too few bets
Yes @ 89¢ $4.1K —
Well-Worn-Result
8 settled bets Too few bets
sold only $0 $2.3K
Vibrant-Vintner
9 settled bets Too few bets
No @ 11¢ $2.2K —
Equatorial-Electrocardiogram
1 settled bets Too few bets
Yes @ 90¢ $2.2K —
Sharp-Astrakhan
1 settled bets Too few bets
Yes @ 90¢ $2.0K —
Fearless-Rear-Chitchat
6 settled bets Too few bets
No @ 17¢ $1.8K —
0xd122…b391
no settled record
Yes @ 90¢ $1.6K —
0xda00…61b4
no settled record
sold only $0 $1.1K
Gaseous-Visit-Duckling
5 settled bets Too few bets
Yes @ 81¢ $1.1K —
Writhing-Round
28 settled bets Can't tell from luck
Yes @ 90¢ $1.1K —
Limp-Drawer
2 settled bets Too few bets
Yes @ 81¢ $1.0K —

Where the whale money went

  1. Yes
    $70K
    84% of whale buying · 13 buyers · $35K sold
  2. Yes
    $9.7K
    12% of whale buying · 1 buyer
  3. No
    $4.0K
    5% of whale buying · 2 buyers

From the whale trades we capture ($1,000+) on this market, Oct 1 to Oct 10, 2026. Whether it resolved, and each whale's record, are from the weekly run. How profit is counted.

Results and records from the weekly run (1791223421).

About this data · weekly run 1791223421, computed 2026-10-05 18:03 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1791223421 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed