Weighty-Cradle
Skill vs luck
Weighty-Cradle on Polymarket: 5 settled bets · won 80% (95% range 38%–96%) · profit +$256. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −11.2% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 24, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Weighty-Cradle: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x168600b3805472df67209254c4428b78633f3cd3. Data CC BY 4.0.
Weighty-Cradle: +$256 on 5 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 80% (95% range 38%–96%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 4 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Sep 5 – Sep 21
- +$166
- Sep 21 – Oct 7
- +$11
- Oct 7 – Oct 24
- +$79
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | BUY Yes @ 92¢ | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24? ↗ | $4.5K |
| Oct 18 | BUY Yes
@ 85¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28? |
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28? | $2.2K |
| Oct 14 | SELL Yes @ 53¢ | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? ↗ | $2.5K |
| Oct 13 | BUY Yes @ 97¢ | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15? ↗ | $2.2K |
| Oct 3 | BUY No
@ 99¢
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 7? |
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 7? | $2.0K |
| Sep 27 | SELL No @ 99.4¢ | Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? ↗ | $2.0K |
| Sep 20 | BUY Yes
@ 99¢
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in September 2026? |
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in September 2026? | $2.0K |
| Sep 18 | BUY No
@ 95¢
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? |
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | $2.4K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?