Wilted-Clerk-Sunflower
Skill vs luck
Wilted-Clerk-Sunflower on Polymarket: 5 settled bets · won 80% (95% range 38%–96%) · profit +$35. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned +3.8% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Nov 1, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Wilted-Clerk-Sunflower: Polymarket record”, as of Nov 1, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xb03a569fdae54e65939b47c9927287c78b117dc8. Data CC BY 4.0.
Wilted-Clerk-Sunflower: +$35 on 5 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 80% (95% range 38%–96%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 4 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 3 – Oct 17
- +$41
- Oct 17 – Nov 1
- −$7
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30 | BUY Yes
@ 99.34¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 30? |
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 30? | $2.0K |
| Oct 28 | BUY No @ 99.35¢ | Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority? ↗ | $1.0K |
| Oct 28 | BUY Bibi
@ 99.49¢
Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats? |
Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats? | $3.0K |
| Oct 22 | SELL Yes @ 97¢ | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22? ↗ | $1.0K |
| Oct 14 | BUY Yes @ 99¢ | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15? ↗ | $2.0K |
| Oct 11 | BUY No
@ 99.45¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on October 12? |
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on October 12? | $2.0K |
All 6 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.