Personal-Bake
0x12d6cccfc7470a3f4bafc53599a4779cbf2cf2a8
Personal-Bake: +$6.4K on 18 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 83% (95% range 61%–94%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
+$6.4K
return +2.9%
Settled bets
18
$221K staked
Won
83.3%
95% range 61%–94%
Mostly bets on
politics/macro
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 15 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by period
- Aug 20 – Sep 6
- +$67
- Sep 6 – Sep 23
- +$6.3K
- Sep 23 – Oct 11
- +$38
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2%
(2,094 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10 | SELL Yes
@ 59¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? |
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? | $4.3K |
| Oct 10 | BUY Yes
@ 42¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? |
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? | $1.4K |
| Oct 10 | BUY Yes
@ 59¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? |
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? | $6.1K |
| Oct 10 | BUY Yes
@ 96¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12? |
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12? | $1.8K |
| Oct 10 | BUY No
@ 23¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? |
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? | $1.4K |
| Oct 10 | SELL No
@ 67¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? |
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | $2.0K |
| Oct 9 | BUY No
@ 27¢
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms? |
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms? | $1.2K |
| Oct 9 | BUY Yes
@ 74¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? |
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | $1.6K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.