Well-Worn-Result
0xb25d2d8100bb0ac29e886c526c74c0871386d127
Well-Worn-Result: −$2.3K on 8 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 38% (95% range 14%–69%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Profit
−$2.3K
return −15.0%
Settled bets
8
$15K staked
Won
37.5%
95% range 14%–69%
Mostly bets on
crypto
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 6 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by 2 weeks
- Aug 20 – Sep 4
- −$1.5K
- Sep 4 – Sep 20
- −$797
- Sep 20 – Oct 5
- −$8
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0%
(2,053 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9 | BUY Yes
@ 48¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? |
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | $1.3K |
| Oct 8 | SELL No
@ 82¢
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy) |
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy) | $1.9K |
| Oct 7 | SELL Yes
@ 83¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15? |
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15? | $2.3K |
| Oct 7 | SELL Yes
@ 67¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? |
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | $2.4K |
| Oct 2 | BUY Yes
@ 91¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 7? |
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 7? | $1.4K |
| Oct 2 | SELL Yes
@ 25¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? |
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | $1.0K |
| Sep 29 | SELL No
@ 96¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? |
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? | $4.6K |
| Sep 25 | BUY No
@ 91¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? |
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? | $1.8K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.