Polymarket market · Other
US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 15?
Resolved: Yes won · See it on Polymarket ↗
8 whales traded $56K on this market since Oct 11, 95% of their buying on Yes. Copying their buys off the order book we recorded about 5 minutes later would have cost 0.1¢ more per share, with 100% of the size there to buy. Yes won, with 95% of the whale buying on it. Of the 4 whales whose whole position we captured, 4 made +$1.0K and 0 lost $0: +$1.0K between them. Biggest win: Opulent-Right, +$746 on Yes.
The whales on this market
8 whales| Whale · record | Backed | Bought | Sold | Made on it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opulent-Right
52 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
Yes @ 95¢ | $15K | $6.8K | +$746 |
| Grounded-Depression
38 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
Yes @ 91¢ | $4.3K | $16K | — |
| Wry-Friction-Banquette
4 settled bets Too few bets |
sold only | $0 | $7.3K | — |
| Boring-Specification
3 settled bets Too few bets |
Yes @ 99.7¢ | $2.3K | — | +$7 |
| Flickering-Ratio
4 settled bets Too few bets |
Yes @ 92¢ | $1.8K | — | +$160 |
| Outrageous-Litigation
1 settled bets Too few bets |
sold only | $0 | $1.1K | — |
| Sardonic-Lentil
37 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
sold only | $0 | $1.0K | — |
| Smooth-Evolution
19 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
Yes @ 92¢ | $1.0K | — | +$88 |
Where the whale money went
-
Yes won$23K95% of whale buying · 5 buyers · $31K sold
-
No lost$1.2K5% of whale buying · 1 buyer · $1.1K sold
From the whale trades we capture ($1,000+) on this market, Oct 11 to Oct 15, 2026. Whether it resolved, and each whale's record, are from the daily run. “Made on it” is what each whale took out plus what its shares paid at the end ($1 for the winner, nothing for the rest), counting only trades we captured. A dash means it sold more than we saw it buy, so part of its position is missing and it's left out of the totals. How profit is counted.
Results and records from the run (1792134019).
More other markets the whales bet on
All Other →| Market | Whale money | Whales | Result | Last whale bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? | $211K | 29 | Open | |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31? | $76K | 7 | Open | |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15? | $206K | 37 | Won: Yes | |
| Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship Group B | $75K | 22 | Won: BetBoom Team | |
| Counter-Strike: Legacy vs FURIA (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship Group B | $183K | 34 | Won: FURIA | |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | $382K | 66 | Open | |
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? | $437K | 51 | Open | |
| Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027? | $140K | 13 | Open |