Agile-Chatter
0x9531648404719924d349dd4911a55a268fc69099
Agile-Chatter: −$4.0K on 14 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 36% (95% range 16%–61%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
−$4.0K
return −5.7%
Settled bets
14
$70K staked
Won
35.7%
95% range 16%–61%
Mostly bets on
politics/macro
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 11 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by 2 weeks
- Aug 20 – Sep 4
- −$2.4K
- Sep 4 – Sep 20
- +$2.8K
- Sep 20 – Oct 5
- −$4.5K
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0%
(2,053 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8 | SELL Yes
@ 55¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in October? |
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in October? | $1.0K |
| Oct 7 | SELL Yes
@ 90¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15? |
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15? | $8.7K |
| Oct 7 | BUY Yes
@ 91¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15? |
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15? | $1.4K |
| Oct 6 | BUY Yes
@ 31¢
Will Spain win on 2026-10-06? |
Will Spain win on 2026-10-06? | $1.0K |
| Oct 1 | SELL Yes
@ 29¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? |
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | $1.8K |
| Sep 25 | SELL Yes
@ 87¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? |
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? | $10K |
| Sep 21 | BUY Yes
@ 84¢
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in September? |
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in September? | $1.8K |
| Sep 21 | BUY Yes
@ 75¢
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in September? |
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in September? | $1.2K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.