Cheerful-Ephemera
0xdf17f4a8dd01a4cfa6fc3da323a2baee5f8697d1
Cheerful-Ephemera: +$48K on 50 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 84% (95% range 72%–92%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
+$48K
return +17.8%
Settled bets
50
$271K staked
Won
84.0%
95% range 72%–92%
Mostly bets on
other
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 40 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by 2 weeks
- Aug 20 – Sep 4
- +$42K
- Sep 4 – Sep 20
- −$1.5K
- Sep 20 – Oct 5
- +$8.1K
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0%
(2,053 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9 | BUY No
@ 99.18¢
NBA: Will Anthony Davis be traded by next season? |
NBA: Will Anthony Davis be traded by next season? | $1.2K |
| Oct 9 | BUY Yes
@ 91¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12? |
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12? | $1.7K |
| Oct 9 | BUY Yes
@ 99.2¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 9? |
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 9? | $1.2K |
| Oct 9 | BUY No
@ 99.23¢
NBA: LeBron James and Bronny James Jr. to Play Together in 2026-27? |
NBA: LeBron James and Bronny James Jr. to Play Together in 2026-27? | $1.0K |
| Oct 9 | BUY No
@ 99.7¢
NBA: Stephen Curry to leave Warriors? |
NBA: Stephen Curry to leave Warriors? | $1.1K |
| Oct 9 | BUY No
@ 93¢
Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31? |
Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31? | $4.1K |
| Oct 7 | BUY No
@ 96¢
Plague pandemic in 2026? |
Plague pandemic in 2026? | $3.2K |
| Oct 7 | BUY No
@ 96¢
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? |
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? | $1.7K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.