Polymarket market · Other
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?
Resolved: Yes won · See it on Polymarket ↗
44 whales put $152K into this market since Sep 2, 56% of their buying on Yes. Yes won. Of the 23 whales whose whole position we captured, 11 made +$10K and 12 lost −$21K: −$11K between them.
The whales on this market
biggest 25 of 44| Whale · record | Backed | Bought | Sold | Made on it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unripe-Whisker
71 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
Yes @ 60¢ | $1.5K | $19K | — |
| Powerful-Election
19 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
No @ 60¢ | $4.9K | $7.4K | — |
| Dearest-Agenda
26 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
Yes @ 95¢ | $11K | — | −$722 |
| Excitable-Suit
5 settled bets Too few bets |
No @ 74¢ | $7.7K | $2.8K | −$4.9K |
| Serpentine-Maggot
20 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
Yes @ 93¢ | $7.1K | — | +$534 |
| Valid-Underground
8 settled bets Too few bets |
Yes @ 68¢ | $3.5K | $2.2K | +$145 |
| Grounded-Depression
31 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
No @ 62¢ | $1.1K | $3.5K | — |
| Fearless-Misnomer
35 settled bets Worse than the odds |
No @ 47¢ | $4.6K | — | −$4.6K |
| Multicolored-Standardization-Lyocell
2 settled bets Too few bets |
sold only | $0 | $4.5K | — |
| Carefree-Sauerkraut
6 settled bets Too few bets |
Yes @ 43¢ | $4.5K | — | +$6.0K |
| Fearful-Congress
34 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
Yes @ 33¢ | $1.4K | $2.7K | — |
| Simple-Tradition
32 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
Yes @ 99.9¢ | $4.0K | — | +$4 |
| Grubby-Chandelier
9 settled bets Too few bets |
Yes @ 43¢ | $2.2K | $1.3K | — |
| Impassioned-Eel-Junker
4 settled bets Too few bets |
No @ 61¢ | $1.8K | $1.5K | −$242 |
| Worthless-Karate
8 settled bets Too few bets |
No @ 44¢ | $1.6K | $1.6K | +$37 |
| Married-Uniformity
6 settled bets Too few bets |
sold only | $0 | $3.2K | — |
| Speedy-Bartender
1 settled bets Too few bets |
Yes @ 88¢ | $1.8K | $1.3K | +$49 |
| Exhausted-String
2 settled bets Too few bets |
sold only | $0 | $2.5K | — |
| Ready-Progression
11 settled bets Too few bets |
sold only | $0 | $2.4K | — |
| Cheerful-Ephemera
56 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
Yes @ 96¢ | $2.4K | — | +$96 |
| Near-Familiar
6 settled bets Too few bets |
sold only | $0 | $2.3K | — |
| Fuzzy-Astrolabe
3 settled bets Too few bets |
sold only | $0 | $2.3K | — |
| Weird-Freedom
8 settled bets Too few bets |
sold only | $0 | $2.0K | — |
| Self-Reliant-Fatigue
2 settled bets Too few bets |
No @ 62¢ | $1.8K | — | −$1.8K |
| Able-Altitude
2 settled bets Too few bets |
sold only | $0 | $1.8K | — |
Where the whale money went
-
Yes won$44K56% of whale buying · 14 buyers · $40K sold
-
No lost$32K42% of whale buying · 15 buyers · $34K sold
-
No lost$1.6K2% of whale buying · 1 buyer
From the whale trades we capture ($1,000+) on this market, Sep 2 to Sep 16, 2026. Whether it resolved, and each whale's record, are from the daily run. “Made on it” is what each whale took out plus what its shares paid at the end ($1 for the winner, nothing for the rest), counting only trades we captured. A dash means it sold more than we saw it buy, so part of its position is missing and it's left out of the totals. How profit is counted.
Results and records from the run (1791710133).
More other markets the whales bet on
All Other →| Market | Whale money | Whales | Result | Last whale bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread: Club Atlético de Madrid (-1.5) | $107K | 5 | Won: Club Atlético de Madrid | |
| Club Atlético de Madrid vs. CA Osasuna: O/U 2.5 | $59K | 8 | Won: Over | |
| Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-09-16? | $233K | 45 | Won: Yes | |
| Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-09-16? | $107K | 10 | Won: No | |
| Will Real Racing Club win on 2026-09-16? | $144K | 15 | Won: No | |
| Manchester United FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 3.5 | $68K | 11 | Won: Over | |
| Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-09-16? | $65K | 14 | Won: No | |
| Spread: FC Barcelona (-3.5) | $95K | 12 | Won: FC Barcelona |