Self-Reliant-Fatigue

0xffa39447b44898fa586ed85058a57026cd423d81

Polymarket

Too few bets Check it on Polymarket ↗

Self-Reliant-Fatigue: +$237 on 2 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 50% (95% range 10%–91%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.

Profit
+$237
return +12.9%
Settled bets
2
$1.8K staked
Won
50.0%
95% range 10%–91%
Mostly bets on
other

Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 1 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by period
Sep 6 – Sep 24
+$237
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −10.9% (2,374 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Sep 9 BUY No @ 62¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? $1.8K
Sep 9 SELL No @ 14¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? $2.1K

All 2 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · run 1791788420, computed 2026-10-12 07:00 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1791788420 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed