Simple-Tradition
0x33e27ac64a453337cfcea8345c705a407c573a1b
Simple-Tradition: −$2.8K on 25 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 72% (95% range 52%–86%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
−$2.8K
return −4.5%
Settled bets
25
$61K staked
Won
72.0%
95% range 52%–86%
Mostly bets on
other
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 19 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by 2 weeks
- Aug 20 – Sep 4
- −$2.7K
- Sep 4 – Sep 20
- +$35
- Sep 20 – Oct 5
- −$118
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0%
(2,053 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9 | SELL No
@ 97¢
Plague pandemic in 2026? |
Plague pandemic in 2026? | $5.5K |
| Oct 9 | BUY No
@ 99.9¢
Will the International Criminal Court win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? |
Will the International Criminal Court win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | $2.3K |
| Oct 9 | SELL No
@ 76¢
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? |
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | $1.4K |
| Oct 9 | BUY No
@ 75¢
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? |
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | $3.7K |
| Oct 9 | BUY Yes
@ 20¢
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? |
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | $2.1K |
| Oct 8 | BUY No
@ 99.9¢
Will Jynxzi, Ron and Los beat the Minecraft challenge by October 7? |
Will Jynxzi, Ron and Los beat the Minecraft challenge by October 7? | $2.3K |
| Oct 7 | BUY No
@ 89¢
Will Jynxzi, Ron and Los beat the Minecraft challenge by October 7? |
Will Jynxzi, Ron and Los beat the Minecraft challenge by October 7? | $1.3K |
| Oct 6 | BUY Yes
@ 98¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 31? |
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 31? | $1.2K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.