Weird-Freedom
0xeca0c0888e34df59589c67fbe53dc7f298b5e8f8
Weird-Freedom: −$9.5K on 9 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 56% (95% range 27%–81%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Profit
−$9.5K
return −53.1%
Settled bets
9
$18K staked
Won
55.6%
95% range 27%–81%
Mostly bets on
politics/macro
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 6 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by 2 weeks
- Aug 20 – Sep 4
- −$50
- Sep 4 – Sep 20
- −$9.6K
- Sep 20 – Oct 5
- +$200
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0%
(2,053 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8 | SELL No
@ 58¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? |
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? | $1.7K |
| Oct 1 | BUY Yes
@ 75¢
Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026? |
Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026? | $1.1K |
| Sep 23 | BUY Yes
@ 87¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? |
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? | $1.7K |
| Sep 23 | BUY Yes
@ 97¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 25? |
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 25? | $1.9K |
| Sep 20 | SELL Yes
@ 92¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? |
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? | $1.4K |
| Sep 20 | BUY Yes
@ 87¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 20? |
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 20? | $1.3K |
| Sep 18 | BUY No
@ 54¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? |
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | $1.1K |
| Sep 18 | BUY Yes
@ 56¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? |
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | $1.1K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.