Jagged-Spread-Minibus
Skill vs luck
Jagged-Spread-Minibus on Polymarket: 8 settled bets · won 13% (95% range 2%–47%) · profit −$13K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −8.9% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 25, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Jagged-Spread-Minibus: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xa197d73b644260fe3f18a63fbda8f5b50c90e0c1. Data CC BY 4.0.
Jagged-Spread-Minibus: −$13K on 8 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 13% (95% range 2%–47%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 3 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 8 – Oct 25
- −$13K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24 | BUY T1 @ 68¢ | LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage ↗ | $2.0K |
| Oct 24 | BUY T1 @ 55¢ | LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage ↗ | $4.7K |
| Oct 24 | BUY Hanwha Life Esports @ 42¢ | LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Gen.G (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage ↗ | $1.3K |
| Oct 24 | SELL LYON @ 99.9¢ | LoL: LYON vs Karmine Corp (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage ↗ | $11K |
| Oct 24 | SELL G2 Esports @ 99.9¢ | LoL: G2 Esports vs LOS (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage ↗ | $14K |
| Oct 24 | SELL Arsenal FC @ 99.9¢ | Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) ↗ | $2.1K |
| Oct 24 | BUY Arsenal FC @ 48¢ | Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) ↗ | $1.0K |
| Oct 24 | SELL Under
@ 47¢
Arsenal FC vs. Everton FC: O/U 2.5 |
Arsenal FC vs. Everton FC: O/U 2.5 | $3.2K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?