Vengeful-Netsuke
0x5cd5c8d7a17c78d7389d8b87b611aed83322ac33
Vengeful-Netsuke: +$1.3K on 13 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 85% (95% range 58%–96%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
+$1.3K
return +6.0%
Settled bets
13
$22K staked
Won
84.6%
95% range 58%–96%
Mostly bets on
politics/macro
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 11 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by period
- Aug 20 – Sep 6
- +$382
- Sep 6 – Sep 23
- +$926
- Sep 23 – Oct 11
- +$30
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2%
(2,094 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8 | BUY Yes
@ 96¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15? |
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15? | $1.4K |
| Oct 5 | BUY No
@ 95¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31? |
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31? | $1.8K |
| Oct 5 | BUY No
@ 89¢
Iran leadership change by December 31? |
Iran leadership change by December 31? | $1.2K |
| Oct 1 | BUY No
@ 98¢
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 7? |
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 7? | $1.4K |
| Sep 24 | SELL No
@ 64¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? |
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | $1.1K |
| Sep 22 | SELL Yes
@ 97¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by September 30? |
Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by September 30? | $3.2K |
| Sep 22 | SELL Yes
@ 97¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 25? |
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 25? | $1.4K |
| Sep 20 | BUY Yes
@ 93¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 20? |
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 20? | $1.4K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.