Nice-Headlight-Anniversary
Skill vs luck
Nice-Headlight-Anniversary on Polymarket: 1 settled bet · won 0% (95% range 0%–79%) · profit −$1.3K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −10.4% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 27, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Nice-Headlight-Anniversary: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 27, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x19dee7c364f30ad8f3f7e36705bcd02a3b6d852c. Data CC BY 4.0.
Nice-Headlight-Anniversary: −$1.3K on 1 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 0% (95% range 0%–79%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 1 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 10 – Oct 27
- −$1.3K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24 | BUY Yamal @ 24¢ | Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher? ↗ | $1.3K |
All 1 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?