Reflecting-Personal-Pattypan
Skill vs luck
Reflecting-Personal-Pattypan on Polymarket: 3 settled bets · won 33% (95% range 6%–79%) · profit +$1.2K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −10.4% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 27, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Reflecting-Personal-Pattypan: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 27, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x71ae923f12eb947c58365287691cf5a10bc3e5bf. Data CC BY 4.0.
Reflecting-Personal-Pattypan: +$1.2K on 3 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 33% (95% range 6%–79%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 1 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 10 – Oct 27
- +$1.2K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26 | SELL Yes
@ 99.9¢
Will Kylian Mbappé finish 2nd in the 2026 Ballon d'Or? |
Will Kylian Mbappé finish 2nd in the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | $23K |
| Oct 26 | SELL Mbappé @ 99.9¢ | Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher? ↗ | $30K |
| Oct 22 | BUY Yes
@ 71¢
Will Lamine Yamal finish 3rd in the 2026 Ballon d'Or? |
Will Lamine Yamal finish 3rd in the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | $3.0K |
All 3 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?