Foolish-Complexity-Columnist
0x6c26cb64a32797edcb0bdf29ed10de0f7ec698b9
Foolish-Complexity-Columnist: +$10K on 15 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 67% (95% range 42%–85%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
+$10K
return +15.6%
Settled bets
15
$67K staked
Won
66.7%
95% range 42%–85%
Mostly bets on
other
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 15 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by 2 weeks
- Sep 20 – Oct 5
- +$10K
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0%
(2,053 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9 | BUY Over
@ 57¢
BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 1.5 |
BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 1.5 | $10K |
| Oct 9 | BUY Under
@ 56¢
BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. SV Werder Bremen: 1st Half O/U 1.5 |
BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. SV Werder Bremen: 1st Half O/U 1.5 | $2.8K |
| Oct 9 | BUY Under
@ 49¢
Maple Leafs vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5 |
Maple Leafs vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5 | $2.0K |
| Oct 9 | BUY Golden Knights
@ 39¢
Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5) |
Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5) | $2.0K |
| Oct 8 | BUY Laslo Djere
@ 55¢
Villena: Oliver Tarvet vs Laslo Djere |
Villena: Oliver Tarvet vs Laslo Djere | $1.4K |
| Oct 7 | BUY Massimo Giunta
@ 70¢
Palermo: Gianluca Cadenasso vs Massimo Giunta |
Palermo: Gianluca Cadenasso vs Massimo Giunta | $13K |
| Oct 4 | BUY Yes
@ 50¢
Will Republic of Ireland win on 2026-10-04? |
Will Republic of Ireland win on 2026-10-04? | $4.5K |
| Oct 4 | BUY Under
@ 41¢
Greece vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 |
Greece vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 | $2.7K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.