Hasty-Dog-Climate
Skill vs luck
Hasty-Dog-Climate on Polymarket: 5 settled bets · won 60% (95% range 23%–88%) · profit −$3.2K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −10.4% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 27, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Hasty-Dog-Climate: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 27, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xb34a0d9010b8eb681cb295bf20e0cab8cf4c8588. Data CC BY 4.0.
Hasty-Dog-Climate: −$3.2K on 5 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 60% (95% range 23%–88%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 3 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 10 – Oct 27
- −$3.2K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26 | SELL Mbappé @ 78¢ | Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher? ↗ | $2.3K |
| Oct 25 | BUY Yes @ 81¢ | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? ↗ | $5.9K |
| Oct 25 | BUY No @ 5¢ | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? ↗ | $2.9K |
| Oct 25 | BUY No @ 5¢ | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? ↗ | $2.7K |
| Oct 24 | SELL Yes
@ 39¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%? |
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%? | $1.6K |
| Oct 24 | BUY No @ 61¢ | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%? ↗ | $2.4K |
| Oct 22 | BUY Yes @ 22¢ | NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? ↗ | $1.3K |
| Oct 22 | BUY Yes @ 92¢ | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on October 22? ↗ | $2.3K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?