Distant-Inhibitor

0x524db836890e08aceb3abcdee98d44240e324495

Polymarket

Can't tell from luck Check it on Polymarket ↗

Distant-Inhibitor: −$7.8K on 17 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 35% (95% range 17%–59%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.

Profit
−$7.8K
return −30.2%
Settled bets
17
$26K staked
Won
35.3%
95% range 17%–59%
Mostly bets on
other

Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 12 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by 2 weeks
Aug 20 – Sep 4
−$616
Sep 4 – Sep 20
−$7.1K
Sep 20 – Oct 5
−$92
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0% (2,053 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Oct 8 SELL No @ 88¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026? $2.3K
Oct 8 SELL Yes @ 11¢
Iran leadership change by December 31?
Iran leadership change by December 31? $1.5K
Oct 7 BUY No @ 90¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026? $7.0K
Oct 7 BUY No @ 57¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2026? $1.3K
Oct 7 BUY No @ 52¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? $3.1K
Oct 6 BUY No @ 78¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? $1.7K
Oct 6 BUY Yes @ 42¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? $6.3K
Oct 5 SELL No @ 57¢
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? $2.1K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · weekly run 1791223421, computed 2026-10-05 18:03 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1791223421 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed