Real-Teaching

0x80a0da00fbdc8440b0ef601341f14c3e24795708

Skill vs luck

Real-Teaching on Polymarket: 2 settled bets · won 100% (95% range 34%–100%) · profit +$2.8K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −6.5% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 20, 2026.

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Cite: Hopium Games, “Real-Teaching: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 20, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x80a0da00fbdc8440b0ef601341f14c3e24795708. Data CC BY 4.0.

Polymarket

Too few bets Check it on Polymarket ↗

Real-Teaching: +$2.8K on 2 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 100% (95% range 34%–100%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.

Profit

+$2.8K

return +131.1%

Settled bets

$2.1K staked

Won

100.0%

95% range 34%–100%

Mostly bets on

other

Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 1 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by period

Sep 4 – Sep 19: +$2.8K

Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.

Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −6.5% (1,973 positions).

Latest captured bets

When	Bet	Market	Size
Oct 19	SELL Yamal @ 38¢ Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?	Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?	$2.3K
Oct 14	BUY Yamal @ 49¢ Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?	Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?	$1.2K
Oct 13	BUY Yamal @ 52¢ Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?	Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?	$1.5K
Oct 9	SELL No @ 66¢ US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	$1.7K
Sep 20	BUY No @ 38¢ Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? ↗	$3.1K
Sep 11	SELL No @ 20¢ US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? ↗	$1.0K
Sep 9	BUY Yes @ 55¢ Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in September?	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in September?	$2.1K

All 7 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.

The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?

About this data · run 1792479640, computed 2026-10-20 07:00 UTC

Source: hopium_compute run 1792479640 (PG metrics_*)

Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
latest window has the most unresolved markets
Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed