Polymarket market · Sports
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Rafael Jodar vs Casper Ruud
Resolved: Rafael Jodar won · See it on Polymarket ↗
37 whales traded $153K on this market since Oct 15, 72% of their buying on Rafael Jodar. Copying their buys off the order book we recorded about 4 minutes later would have cost 0.3¢ less per share, with 97% of the size there to buy. Rafael Jodar won, with 72% of the whale buying on it. Of the 25 whales whose whole position we captured, 15 made +$58K and 10 lost −$24K: +$34K between them. Biggest win: Gleeful-Cauliflower, +$31K on Rafael Jodar. Biggest loss: Quixotic-Brow, −$4.0K on Casper Ruud.
The whales on this market
biggest 25 of 37| Whale · record | Backed | Bought | Sold | Made on it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gleeful-Cauliflower
4,128 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
Rafael Jodar @ 53¢ | $46K | — | +$31K |
| High-Antling-Tactile
34 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
sold only | $0 | $7.7K | — |
| 0xe98c…8792
76 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
sold only | $0 | $6.9K | — |
| Worrisome-Winery
55 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
Rafael Jodar @ 55¢ | $2.7K | $3.9K | +$1.2K |
| Grateful-Chest
262 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
Rafael Jodar @ 55¢ | $6.5K | — | +$5.5K |
| Innocent-Grape
138 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
Rafael Jodar @ 64¢ | $6.4K | — | +$3.6K |
| Hollow-Maggot-Sense
1,213 settled bets Beat the odds* |
Rafael Jodar @ 53¢ | $5.1K | — | +$439 |
| Vengeful-Interject-Parking
20 settled bets Worse than the odds |
Rafael Jodar @ 55¢ | $5.0K | — | +$4.1K |
| Impractical-Convenience-Messy
32 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
Rafael Jodar @ 72¢ | $2.4K | $1.6K | +$845 |
| Quixotic-Brow
164 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
Casper Ruud @ 46¢ | $4.0K | — | −$4.0K |
| Dry-Gather
32 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
Casper Ruud @ 45¢ | $3.9K | — | −$3.9K |
| Guilty-Aide
34 settled bets Beat the odds* |
Rafael Jodar @ 54¢ | $3.8K | — | +$3.2K |
| Cuddly-Misfit-Prayer
15 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
sold only | $0 | $3.8K | — |
| Revolving-Spat
4 settled bets Too few bets |
sold only | $0 | $3.0K | — |
| Spotless-Girlfriend
43 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
Casper Ruud @ 46¢ | $2.9K | — | −$2.9K |
| Exalted-Evocation
112 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
Casper Ruud @ 47¢ | $2.5K | — | −$2.5K |
| Primary-Hunting
13 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
Rafael Jodar @ 53¢ | $2.4K | — | +$2.2K |
| Metallic-Use
55 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
Rafael Jodar @ 52¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$1 |
| Powerless-Savannah
2,597 settled bets Beat the odds* |
Casper Ruud @ 72¢ | $2.3K | — | −$2.3K |
| Scornful-Gym-Retreat
194 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
Casper Ruud @ 46¢ | $2.2K | — | −$2.2K |
| Broken-Retouching
16 settled bets Too few bets |
Casper Ruud @ 47¢ | $2.2K | — | −$2.2K |
| Beautiful-Frosting
21 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
Rafael Jodar @ 66¢ | $2.2K | — | +$1.1K |
| Jumpy-Normalization
1 settled bets Too few bets |
sold only | $0 | $2.1K | — |
| Favorable-Pepper-Brushing
1,096 settled bets Worse than the odds |
Rafael Jodar @ 80¢ | $2.0K | — | +$489 |
| Salty-Birdwatcher
2 settled bets Too few bets |
Casper Ruud @ 46¢ | $1.8K | — | −$1.8K |
Where the whale money went
-
Rafael Jodar won$82K72% of whale buying · 15 buyers · $39K sold
-
Casper Ruud lost$32K28% of whale buying · 12 buyers
From the whale trades we capture ($1,000+) on this market, Oct 15 to Oct 16, 2026. Whether it resolved, and each whale's record, are from the daily run. “Made on it” is what each whale took out plus what its shares paid at the end ($1 for the winner, nothing for the rest), counting only trades we captured. A dash means it sold more than we saw it buy, so part of its position is missing and it's left out of the totals. How profit is counted.
Results and records from the run (1792220425).
More sports markets the whales bet on
All Sports →| Market | Whale money | Whales | Result | Last whale bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wuhan Tennis Open: Maja Chwalinska vs Maria Sakkari | $174K | 33 | Won: Maja Chwalinska | |
| Wuhan Tennis Open: Elina Svitolina vs Sonay Kartal | $327K | 44 | Won: Sonay Kartal | |
| Jinan: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Yosuke Watanuki | $55K | 10 | Won: Shintaro Mochizuki | |
| Shanghai Rolex Masters: Daniil Medvedev vs Tommy Paul | $243K | 28 | Won: Daniil Medvedev | |
| Wuhan Tennis Open: Ann Li vs Iga Swiatek | $80K | 15 | Won: Iga Swiatek | |
| Wuhan Tennis Open: Diana Shnaider vs Jelena Ostapenko | $118K | 17 | Won: Jelena Ostapenko | |
| Spread: Seahawks (-2.5) | $108K | 8 | Won: Broncos | |
| Seahawks vs. Broncos | $637K | 52 | Won: Broncos |