Grateful-Chest
0x9cb990f1862568a63d8601efeebe0304225c32f2
Grateful-Chest: −$22K on 183 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 45% (95% range 38%–52%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
−$22K
return −2.2%
Settled bets
183
$994K staked
Won
44.8%
95% range 38%–52%
Mostly bets on
other
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 146 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by 2 weeks
- Aug 20 – Sep 4
- −$30K
- Sep 4 – Sep 20
- +$50K
- Sep 20 – Oct 5
- −$43K
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0%
(2,053 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7 | BUY Qinwen Zheng
@ 74¢
China Open: Alina Charaeva vs Qinwen Zheng |
China Open: Alina Charaeva vs Qinwen Zheng | $2.9K |
| Oct 7 | BUY Coco Gauff
@ 23¢
China Open: Coco Gauff vs Elise Mertens |
China Open: Coco Gauff vs Elise Mertens | $1.4K |
| Oct 7 | BUY Tomas Machac
@ 42¢
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Zhizhen Zhang vs Tomas Machac |
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Zhizhen Zhang vs Tomas Machac | $6.8K |
| Oct 7 | BUY Michael Zheng
@ 44¢
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Yibing Wu vs Michael Zheng |
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Yibing Wu vs Michael Zheng | $1.5K |
| Oct 7 | BUY Alex Molcan
@ 30¢
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Alex Molcan vs Federico Cina |
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Alex Molcan vs Federico Cina | $1.5K |
| Oct 7 | BUY Rinky Hijikata
@ 27¢
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Rinky Hijikata vs Roman Safiullin |
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Rinky Hijikata vs Roman Safiullin | $1.7K |
| Oct 7 | BUY Over
@ 45¢
Jovic vs. Swiatek: Match O/U 21.5 |
Jovic vs. Swiatek: Match O/U 21.5 | $1.8K |
| Oct 7 | SELL Miomir Kecmanovic
@ 67¢
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Sho Shimabukuro vs Miomir Kecmanovic |
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Sho Shimabukuro vs Miomir Kecmanovic | $1.3K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.