Exalted-Evocation

0x479e330b07822ee28e20bac5e504f1b7c6b591c3

Polymarket

Can't tell from luck Check it on Polymarket ↗

Exalted-Evocation: +$8.3K on 81 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 63% (95% range 52%–73%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.

Profit
+$8.3K
return +4.5%
Settled bets
81
$184K staked
Won
63.0%
95% range 52%–73%
Mostly bets on
sports

Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 66 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by 2 weeks
Aug 20 – Sep 4
+$11K
Sep 4 – Sep 20
−$9.5K
Sep 20 – Oct 5
+$6.8K
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0% (2,053 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Oct 9 BUY Novak Djokovic @ 65¢
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Novak Djokovic vs Hubert Hurkacz
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Novak Djokovic vs Hubert Hurkacz $3.0K
Oct 9 SELL Frances Tiafoe @ 99.9¢
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Yannick Hanfmann vs Frances Tiafoe
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Yannick Hanfmann vs Frances Tiafoe $3.3K
Oct 9 SELL Alexander Zverev @ 99.9¢
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Alexander Zverev vs Yibing Wu
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Alexander Zverev vs Yibing Wu $4.9K
Oct 9 BUY Frances Tiafoe @ 87¢
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Yannick Hanfmann vs Frances Tiafoe
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Yannick Hanfmann vs Frances Tiafoe $2.9K
Oct 9 BUY Alexander Zverev @ 89¢
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Alexander Zverev vs Yibing Wu
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Alexander Zverev vs Yibing Wu $4.4K
Oct 9 SELL Ben Shelton @ 99.9¢
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Ben Shelton vs Daniel Altmaier
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Ben Shelton vs Daniel Altmaier $4.4K
Oct 9 BUY Matteo Berrettini @ 55¢
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Matteo Berrettini vs Brandon Nakashima
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Matteo Berrettini vs Brandon Nakashima $1.7K
Oct 9 SELL Arthur Gea @ 99.9¢
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Arthur Gea vs Ugo Humbert
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Arthur Gea vs Ugo Humbert $1.7K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · weekly run 1791223421, computed 2026-10-05 18:03 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1791223421 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed