Innocent-Grape
0xcf6c5492124794394dd9eac46498a8babbe47e66
Innocent-Grape: −$23K on 109 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 62% (95% range 52%–70%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
−$23K
return −3.6%
Settled bets
109
$624K staked
Won
61.5%
95% range 52%–70%
Mostly bets on
sports
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 99 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by 2 weeks
- Aug 20 – Sep 4
- +$2.6K
- Sep 4 – Sep 20
- −$26K
- Sep 20 – Oct 5
- +$1.1K
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0%
(2,053 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7 | BUY Adrian Mannarino
@ 95¢
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Adrian Mannarino vs Nikoloz Basilashvili |
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Adrian Mannarino vs Nikoloz Basilashvili | $30K |
| Oct 6 | BUY Pavel Kotov
@ 58¢
Shanghai Rolex Masters, Qualification: Pavel Kotov vs Aleksandar Vukic |
Shanghai Rolex Masters, Qualification: Pavel Kotov vs Aleksandar Vukic | $3.2K |
| Oct 6 | BUY Lloyd Harris
@ 45¢
Shanghai Rolex Masters, Qualification: Coleman Wong vs Lloyd Harris |
Shanghai Rolex Masters, Qualification: Coleman Wong vs Lloyd Harris | $4.4K |
| Oct 6 | BUY Dalibor Svrcina
@ 84¢
Shanghai Rolex Masters, Qualification: Yoshihito Nishioka vs Dalibor Svrcina |
Shanghai Rolex Masters, Qualification: Yoshihito Nishioka vs Dalibor Svrcina | $7.4K |
| Oct 5 | BUY Novak Djokovic
@ 83¢
China Open: Novak Djokovic vs Daniil Medvedev |
China Open: Novak Djokovic vs Daniil Medvedev | $9.4K |
| Oct 5 | BUY Jie Cui
@ 69¢
Shanghai Rolex Masters, Qualification: Jie Cui vs Aleksandar Vukic |
Shanghai Rolex Masters, Qualification: Jie Cui vs Aleksandar Vukic | $4.8K |
| Oct 5 | BUY Jie Cui
@ 67¢
Shanghai Rolex Masters, Qualification: Jie Cui vs Aleksandar Vukic |
Shanghai Rolex Masters, Qualification: Jie Cui vs Aleksandar Vukic | $1.8K |
| Oct 5 | BUY Jie Cui
@ 70¢
Shanghai Rolex Masters, Qualification: Jie Cui vs Aleksandar Vukic |
Shanghai Rolex Masters, Qualification: Jie Cui vs Aleksandar Vukic | $1.9K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.