Salty-Birdwatcher
Skill vs luck
Salty-Birdwatcher on Polymarket: 2 settled bets · won 50% (95% range 10%–91%) · profit −$402. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −8.2% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 18, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Salty-Birdwatcher: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 18, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xb95cf8b07e4288a66823a2e55f69baa1d94d7913. Data CC BY 4.0.
Salty-Birdwatcher: −$402 on 2 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 50% (95% range 10%–91%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 2 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Sep 18 – Oct 3
- +$1.4K
- Oct 3 – Oct 18
- −$1.8K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17 | BUY
@ 28¢
Ningbo Open, Qualification: Dayana Yastremska vs Kamilla Rakhimova AND Almaty Open, Qualification: Alexander Shevchenko vs Daniil Glinka |
Ningbo Open, Qualification: Dayana Yastremska vs Kamilla Rakhimova AND Almaty Open, Qualification: Alexander Shevchenko vs Daniil Glinka | $1.4K |
| Oct 16 | BUY Casper Ruud @ 46¢ | Shanghai Rolex Masters: Rafael Jodar vs Casper Ruud ↗ | $1.8K |
| Oct 2 | BUY
@ 42¢
China Open: Janice Tjen vs Diana Shnaider AND Japan Open Tennis Championships: Kyrian Jacquet vs Luciano Darderi |
China Open: Janice Tjen vs Diana Shnaider AND Japan Open Tennis Championships: Kyrian Jacquet vs Luciano Darderi | $1.2K |
| Oct 1 | BUY
@ 40¢
Japan Open Tennis Championships: Luciano Darderi vs Casper Ruud AND China Open: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Francisco Cerundolo |
Japan Open Tennis Championships: Luciano Darderi vs Casper Ruud AND China Open: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Francisco Cerundolo | $1.3K |
| Sep 20 | BUY Broncos @ 52¢ | Spread: Broncos (-2.5) ↗ | $1.5K |
All 5 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?