Spotless-Girlfriend

0x4c07bf46017ef52c0bea3fe4253185dec1316200

Polymarket

Can't tell from luck Check it on Polymarket ↗

Spotless-Girlfriend: +$7.9K on 23 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 70% (95% range 49%–84%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.

Profit
+$7.9K
return +16.5%
Settled bets
23
$48K staked
Won
69.6%
95% range 49%–84%
Mostly bets on
sports

Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 23 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by period
Aug 20 – Sep 6
+$433
Sep 6 – Sep 23
+$2.5K
Sep 23 – Oct 11
+$4.9K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2% (2,094 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Oct 11 BUY Alex de Minaur @ 70¢
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Alex de Minaur vs Rei Sakamoto
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Alex de Minaur vs Rei Sakamoto $1.5K
Oct 9 BUY Aurora @ 62¢
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs $2.7K
Oct 9 BUY PARIVISION @ 57¢
Dota 2: 1win vs PARIVISION (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs
Dota 2: 1win vs PARIVISION (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs $2.8K
Oct 9 BUY PARIVISION @ 59¢
Game Handicap: PARI (-1.5) vs 1win (+1.5)
Game Handicap: PARI (-1.5) vs 1win (+1.5) $1.7K
Oct 9 BUY MOUZ @ 59¢
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs $2.7K
Oct 9 BUY Vitality @ 57¢
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs PARIVISION (+1.5)
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs PARIVISION (+1.5) $1.4K
Oct 9 BUY Aurora Gaming @ 71¢
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs $2.9K
Oct 9 BUY Team Spirit @ 69¢
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs $2.8K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · run 1791710133, computed 2026-10-11 09:15 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1791710133 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed