Gleeful-Cauliflower

0x2a69660046d7acc4ab204d7cc5ba78b0776cd2f7

Polymarket

Can't tell from luck Check it on Polymarket ↗
Profit
−$194K
return −1.7%
Settled bets
3,235
$11.4M staked
Won
70.3%
95% range 69%–72%
Mostly bets on
other

Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 3,235 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Aug 20 – Sep 4: −$168K Sep 4 – Sep 20: −$96K Sep 20 – Oct 5: +$70K
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0% (2,053 positions).

In the live feed

$7.0K bought No at 48¢
$7.9K bought Yes at 55¢
$6.6K bought Juan Carlos Prado at 87¢

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Oct 7 Bought Holger Rune at 88¢
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Holger Rune vs Daniel Altmaier
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Holger Rune vs Daniel Altmaier $3.2K
Oct 7 Bought Arthur Fery at 95¢
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Arthur Fery vs Marin Cilic
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Arthur Fery vs Marin Cilic $1.4K
Oct 7 Bought Arthur Fery at 86¢
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Arthur Fery vs Marin Cilic
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Arthur Fery vs Marin Cilic $7.9K
Oct 7 Bought Arthur Fery at 86¢
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Arthur Fery vs Marin Cilic
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Arthur Fery vs Marin Cilic $7.9K
Oct 7 Bought Arthur Fery at 86¢
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Arthur Fery vs Marin Cilic
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Arthur Fery vs Marin Cilic $7.9K
Oct 7 Bought Arthur Fery at 86¢
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Arthur Fery vs Marin Cilic
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Arthur Fery vs Marin Cilic $1.1K
Oct 7 Bought Qinwen Zheng at 76¢
China Open: Alina Charaeva vs Qinwen Zheng
China Open: Alina Charaeva vs Qinwen Zheng $3.1K
Oct 7 Bought Qinwen Zheng at 75¢
China Open: Alina Charaeva vs Qinwen Zheng
China Open: Alina Charaeva vs Qinwen Zheng $4.4K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.

Source: hopium_compute run 1791223421 (PG metrics_*) · computed 2026-10-05 18:03 UTC
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed