Metallic-Use

0xe146d4569db3c975e0d08d94a559e6ea2a2283ee

Polymarket

Can't tell from luck Check it on Polymarket ↗

Metallic-Use: +$450 on 25 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 32% (95% range 17%–52%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.

Profit
+$450
return +2.5%
Settled bets
25
$18K staked
Won
32.0%
95% range 17%–52%
Mostly bets on
sports

Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 10 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by 2 weeks
Sep 4 – Sep 20
+$450
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0% (2,053 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Oct 9 SELL Joao Lucas Da Silva @ 99¢
Antofagasta: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Joao Lucas Da Silva
Antofagasta: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Joao Lucas Da Silva $1.1K
Oct 9 SELL 1win @ 99¢
Dota 2: 1win vs PARIVISION - Game 1 Winner
Dota 2: 1win vs PARIVISION - Game 1 Winner $1.0K
Oct 9 SELL Kyoka Okamura @ 99.9¢
Suzhou: Zhuoxuan Bai vs Kyoka Okamura
Suzhou: Zhuoxuan Bai vs Kyoka Okamura $1.4K
Oct 7 BUY CyberHero @ 44¢
Dota 2: MOUZ vs CyberHero - Game 2 Winner
Dota 2: MOUZ vs CyberHero - Game 2 Winner $1.0K
Oct 6 SELL Aurora Gaming @ 95¢
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 Winner
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 Winner $1.0K
Oct 6 SELL Team Synapse @ 99.9¢
Dota 2: Team Synapse vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - PARI Universe Closed Qualifier Playoffs
Dota 2: Team Synapse vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - PARI Universe Closed Qualifier Playoffs $1.6K
Sep 15 SELL @ 99.9¢
Caldas da Rainha: Aoi Ito vs Gabriela Knutson AND Ljubljana: Lucie Havlickova vs Aurora Zantedeschi
Caldas da Rainha: Aoi Ito vs Gabriela Knutson AND Ljubljana: Lucie Havlickova vs Aurora Zantedeschi $1.5K
Sep 15 SELL Dominik Palan @ 61¢
Phan Thiet 4: Dominik Palan vs Martin Borisiouk
Phan Thiet 4: Dominik Palan vs Martin Borisiouk $1.5K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · weekly run 1791223421, computed 2026-10-05 18:03 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1791223421 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed