Previous-Proof-Landscape
Skill vs luck
Previous-Proof-Landscape on Polymarket: 11 settled bets · won 91% (95% range 62%–98%) · profit −$1.6K. Skill vs luck: can't be told from luck. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −10.4% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 27, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Previous-Proof-Landscape: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 27, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x569ad121a7653e42ca2e5d16a8ca9fdfb2a78ca5. Data CC BY 4.0.
Previous-Proof-Landscape: −$1.6K on 11 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 91% (95% range 62%–98%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 11 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 10 – Oct 27
- −$1.6K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26 | BUY Yes @ 99.8¢ | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%? ↗ | $3.0K |
| Oct 26 | BUY Yes
@ 99.9¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 2–4%? |
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 2–4%? | $3.0K |
| Oct 26 | BUY No
@ 99.9¢
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 October 19-25? |
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 October 19-25? | $1.6K |
| Oct 26 | BUY Yes @ 99.8¢ | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? ↗ | $3.0K |
| Oct 26 | BUY No @ 99.9¢ | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? ↗ | $3.0K |
| Oct 25 | BUY Andrew Fenty
@ 99.9¢
Sioux Falls: Cooper Woestendick vs Andrew Fenty |
Sioux Falls: Cooper Woestendick vs Andrew Fenty | $1.4K |
| Oct 25 | BUY No
@ 99.9¢
Will NDP win the most seats in the 2026 British Columbia general election? |
Will NDP win the most seats in the 2026 British Columbia general election? | $1.6K |
| Oct 23 | BUY No
@ 99.5¢
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 15°C or below on October 21? |
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 15°C or below on October 21? | $1.4K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?