Usable-Flu

0x7635ed586336bc7246b39cd416ed17e4858963f6

Polymarket

Can't tell from luck Check it on Polymarket ↗

Usable-Flu: −$3.5K on 21 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 95% (95% range 77%–99%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.

Profit
−$3.5K
return −3.7%
Settled bets
21
$96K staked
Won
95.2%
95% range 77%–99%
Mostly bets on
sports

Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 21 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by period
Aug 20 – Sep 6
+$110
Sep 6 – Sep 23
−$3.8K
Sep 23 – Oct 11
+$122
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2% (2,094 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Oct 9 BUY Aurora Gaming @ 99.9¢
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs $8.0K
Oct 4 BUY Team Falcons @ 99.87¢
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage $4.1K
Oct 4 BUY BNK FEARX @ 99.9¢
LoL: LGD Gaming vs BNK FEARX - Game 1 Winner
LoL: LGD Gaming vs BNK FEARX - Game 1 Winner $5.0K
Oct 3 BUY Vitality @ 98¢
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 1WIN - Map 1 Winner
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 1WIN - Map 1 Winner $2.0K
Oct 2 BUY Italy @ 98¢
Spread: France (-3.5)
Spread: France (-3.5) $1.8K
Oct 1 BUY Team Liquid @ 99.9¢
Valorant: TYLOO vs Team Liquid (BO3) - VCT Champions Group C
Valorant: TYLOO vs Team Liquid (BO3) - VCT Champions Group C $7.1K
Sep 29 BUY LGD Gaming @ 99.9¢
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 1 Winner
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 1 Winner $9.1K
Sep 28 BUY No @ 99.9¢
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-09-27?
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-09-27? $5.0K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · run 1791710133, computed 2026-10-11 09:15 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1791710133 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed