Fortunate-Caterpillar
Skill vs luck
Fortunate-Caterpillar on Polymarket: 1 settled bet · won 100% (95% range 21%–100%) · profit +$1.0K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −10.4% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 27, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Fortunate-Caterpillar: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 27, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x909611884deaa458739de6cd3feb821c96be5984. Data CC BY 4.0.
Fortunate-Caterpillar: +$1.0K on 1 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 100% (95% range 21%–100%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 10 – Oct 27
- +$1.0K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25 | SELL Yes @ 84¢ | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%? ↗ | $2.4K |
| Oct 25 | BUY Yes @ 41¢ | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%? ↗ | $1.0K |
All 2 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?