Admirable-Samurai
Skill vs luck
Admirable-Samurai on Polymarket: 8 settled bets · won 88% (95% range 53%–98%) · profit −$1.3K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −10.4% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 27, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Admirable-Samurai: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 27, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x1229233bad2fd7462955c6383448904b5432df38. Data CC BY 4.0.
Admirable-Samurai: −$1.3K on 8 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 88% (95% range 53%–98%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 5 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Sep 6 – Sep 23
- +$4.4K
- Sep 23 – Oct 10
- +$329
- Oct 10 – Oct 27
- −$6.0K
Latest captured bets
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?