Valid-Textual-Winery
Skill vs luck
Valid-Textual-Winery on Polymarket: 2 settled bets · won 50% (95% range 10%–91%) · profit +$6.2K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −10.4% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 27, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Valid-Textual-Winery: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 27, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x4e51772290ba359303adeb72918aa0b0fbaed214. Data CC BY 4.0.
Valid-Textual-Winery: +$6.2K on 2 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 50% (95% range 10%–91%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 1 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 10 – Oct 27
- +$6.2K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26 | SELL Yes @ 99.05¢ | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%? ↗ | $21K |
| Oct 25 | BUY Yes @ 20¢ | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%? ↗ | $2.1K |
| Oct 24 | BUY Yes @ 47¢ | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%? ↗ | $1.7K |
All 3 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?