0x4488…e319
0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319
0x4488…e319: +$38K on 69 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 62% (95% range 51%–73%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
+$38K
return +13.0%
Settled bets
69
$294K staked
Won
62.3%
95% range 51%–73%
Mostly bets on
politics/macro
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 66 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by 2 weeks
- Aug 20 – Sep 4
- +$5.2K
- Sep 4 – Sep 20
- +$15K
- Sep 20 – Oct 5
- +$18K
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0%
(2,053 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 4 | BUY No
@ 99.09¢
Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election? |
Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election? | $32K |
| Oct 4 | BUY No
@ 99¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? |
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | $15K |
| Oct 3 | BUY Yes
@ 62¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? |
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | $3.5K |
| Oct 3 | BUY No
@ 63¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? |
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | $3.1K |
| Oct 3 | BUY Yes
@ 26¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? |
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | $1.4K |
| Sep 28 | BUY Bears
@ 53¢
Spread: Eagles (-3.5) |
Spread: Eagles (-3.5) | $1.6K |
| Sep 26 | BUY No
@ 99.8¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30? |
Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30? | $9.1K |
| Sep 26 | BUY Christian Edwards
@ 37¢
UFC Fight Night: Christian Edwards vs. Rodolfo Bellato (Light Heavyweight, Prelims) |
UFC Fight Night: Christian Edwards vs. Rodolfo Bellato (Light Heavyweight, Prelims) | $9.6K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.