Dead-Lava
0x629bc4a1e53e1d475beb7ea3d388791e96dd995a
Dead-Lava: +$2.3K on 8 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 63% (95% range 31%–86%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Profit
+$2.3K
return +11.4%
Settled bets
8
$20K staked
Won
62.5%
95% range 31%–86%
Mostly bets on
politics/macro
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 8 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by period
- Aug 20 – Sep 6
- −$3.2K
- Sep 6 – Sep 24
- +$4.4K
- Sep 24 – Oct 12
- +$1.1K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −10.9%
(2,374 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 4 | BUY Yes
@ 70¢
Will Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Amapá? |
Will Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Amapá? | $1.3K |
| Oct 4 | BUY No
@ 70¢
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Amapá? |
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Amapá? | $1.3K |
| Oct 4 | BUY No
@ 38¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? |
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | $1.1K |
| Oct 2 | BUY No
@ 31¢
Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026? |
Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026? | $1.9K |
| Oct 2 | SELL No
@ 93¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? |
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | $3.1K |
| Sep 23 | BUY Yes
@ 43¢
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? |
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | $2.1K |
| Sep 20 | BUY Under
@ 73¢
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 5%? |
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 5%? | $2.3K |
| Sep 19 | BUY No
@ 63¢
Will AfD win 35 or more seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? |
Will AfD win 35 or more seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | $2.8K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.