Shameful-Cinnamon
Skill vs luck
Shameful-Cinnamon on Polymarket: 7 settled bets · won 57% (95% range 25%–84%) · profit +$1.1K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned +0.2% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Nov 3, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Shameful-Cinnamon: Polymarket record”, as of Nov 3, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x4d0121458bb2f96c6440c0f3835d675ad3ce1645. Data CC BY 4.0.
Shameful-Cinnamon: +$1.1K on 7 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 57% (95% range 25%–84%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 3 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Aug 20 – Sep 4
- +$1.0K
- Sep 4 – Sep 19
- +$13
- Sep 19 – Oct 4
- −$6
- Oct 4 – Oct 19
- −$41
- Oct 19 – Nov 3
- +$91
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1 | BUY Yes @ 99.5¢ | Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? ↗ | $1.2K |
| Nov 1 | BUY No @ 97¢ | Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election? ↗ | $2.8K |
| Oct 25 | SELL No @ 91¢ | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? ↗ | $3.3K |
| Oct 20 | BUY No
@ 98¢
Will Santiago Abascal be the next Prime Minister of Spain? |
Will Santiago Abascal be the next Prime Minister of Spain? | $1.1K |
| Oct 6 | BUY Yes
@ 97¢
Will the Democrats win the Georgia Senate race in 2026? |
Will the Democrats win the Georgia Senate race in 2026? | $2.2K |
| Oct 5 | SELL No
@ 99.9¢
Will Anthropic IPO by October 15, 2026? |
Will Anthropic IPO by October 15, 2026? | $1.1K |
| Oct 4 | SELL Yes
@ 96¢
Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election? |
Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election? | $1.0K |
| Oct 4 | SELL No
@ 74¢
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? |
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? | $1.6K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.