Polymarket market · Other

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?

Open as of the last daily run · See it on Polymarket ↗

29 whales put $183K into this market since Aug 21, 93% of their buying on No. It hadn't resolved as of the last daily run.

The whales on this market

biggest 25 of 29
Whale · recordBackedBoughtSold
Sardonic-Lentil
30 settled bets Can't tell from luck
No @ 84¢ $61K —
Crowded-Distance
22 settled bets Can't tell from luck
No @ 80¢ $33K —
Fearful-Congress
34 settled bets Can't tell from luck
No @ 85¢ $8.0K $7.9K
Antique-Frame
7 settled bets Too few bets
sold only $0 $9.3K
Lone-Glutamate
4 settled bets Too few bets
No @ 83¢ $3.3K $1.3K
Lustrous-Parchment
2 settled bets Too few bets
No @ 82¢ $4.2K —
Sophisticated-Posterior
1 settled bets Too few bets
Yes @ 17¢ $4.0K —
Advanced-Mailer
16 settled bets Worse than the odds
No @ 81¢ $3.7K —
0xf57d…c0ff
no settled record
No @ 83¢ $3.5K —
0xc6cb…bbf0
no settled record
No @ 80¢ $3.5K —
Odd-Monk
2 settled bets Too few bets
No @ 84¢ $3.5K —
0xa27b…229a
no settled record
No @ 83¢ $3.5K —
0x2180…a93d
no settled record
No @ 83¢ $3.3K —
Zesty-Disappointment
23 settled bets Can't tell from luck
No @ 79¢ $3.1K —
0xd640…480c
no settled record
No @ 85¢ $2.9K —
Needy-Cenotaph
4 settled bets Too few bets
Yes @ 16¢ $1.6K $1.1K
Quick-Cardboard
14 settled bets Can't tell from luck
No @ 86¢ $2.6K —
Wilted-Burden-Survivor
4 settled bets Too few bets
sold only $0 $2.5K
Stark-Therapy
3 settled bets Too few bets
No @ 83¢ $2.5K —
0x0fde…8ab1
no settled record
Yes @ 21¢ $1.0K $1.0K
Able-Altitude
2 settled bets Too few bets
No @ 83¢ $2.0K —
Thick-Language
12 settled bets Too few bets
Yes @ 18¢ $1.7K —
Decimal-Artery
1 settled bets Too few bets
No @ 83¢ $1.5K —
0xb5d1…6e35
no settled record
Yes @ 21¢ $1.4K —
Second-Hand-Follower
11 settled bets Can't tell from luck
sold only $0 $1.3K

Where the whale money went

  1. No
    $147K
    93% of whale buying · 19 buyers · $22K sold
  2. Yes
    $11K
    7% of whale buying · 6 buyers · $3.4K sold

From the whale trades we capture ($1,000+) on this market, Aug 21 to Oct 10, 2026. Whether it resolved, and each whale's record, are from the daily run. How profit is counted.

Results and records from the run (1791710133).

About this data · run 1791710133, computed 2026-10-11 09:15 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1791710133 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed