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Advanced-Mailer: −$3.3K on 16 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 50% (95% range 28%–72%). Skill or luck: worse than the odds.
Profit
−$3.3K
return −9.8%
Settled bets
16
$33K staked
Won
50.0%
95% range 28%–72%
Mostly bets on
politics/macro
Skill or luck? Worse than the odds. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 15 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by period
- Aug 20 – Sep 6
- −$1.1K
- Sep 6 – Sep 23
- +$1.5K
- Sep 23 – Oct 11
- −$3.7K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2%
(2,094 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11 | SELL Yes
@ 72¢
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? |
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? | $1.4K |
| Oct 11 | BUY No
@ 97¢
Will Oklahoma enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026? |
Will Oklahoma enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026? | $1.5K |
| Oct 10 | BUY Yes
@ 59¢
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? |
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? | $2.0K |
| Oct 10 | SELL Yes
@ 55¢
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-10-10? |
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-10-10? | $1.3K |
| Oct 9 | SELL No
@ 80¢
Will Texas enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027? |
Will Texas enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027? | $1.1K |
| Oct 9 | BUY Washington
@ 54¢
Spread: Washington (-2.5) |
Spread: Washington (-2.5) | $1.2K |
| Oct 9 | SELL No
@ 56¢
Will Vitality Win the ESL Pro League Season 24? |
Will Vitality Win the ESL Pro League Season 24? | $1.5K |
| Oct 8 | SELL No
@ 90¢
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? |
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | $1.1K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.