Broken-Dogwood
Skill vs luck
Broken-Dogwood on Polymarket: 8 settled bets · won 50% (95% range 22%–79%) · profit −$1.8K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −11.1% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 28, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Broken-Dogwood: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 28, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x24c8cf69a0e0a17eee21f69d29752bfa32e823e1. Data CC BY 4.0.
Broken-Dogwood: −$1.8K on 8 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 50% (95% range 22%–79%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 4 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Aug 20 – Sep 6
- −$9
- Sep 6 – Sep 23
- −$2.0K
- Oct 10 – Oct 28
- +$197
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28 | BUY Yes @ 48¢ | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? ↗ | $1.2K |
| Oct 27 | SELL No @ 94¢ | Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? ↗ | $2.1K |
| Oct 27 | BUY Yes @ 27¢ | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? ↗ | $1.5K |
| Oct 27 | BUY No @ 75¢ | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? ↗ | $1.7K |
| Oct 27 | BUY No @ 75¢ | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? ↗ | $2.2K |
| Oct 27 | SELL No @ 74¢ | Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? ↗ | $1.9K |
| Oct 27 | BUY No @ 80¢ | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? ↗ | $3.5K |
| Oct 26 | SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? ↗ | $72K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?