Writhing-Round
0x1583c5d3f2b55b3ec71c599c6b90d328d49cbdde
Writhing-Round: −$10K on 37 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 43% (95% range 29%–59%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
−$10K
return −15.7%
Settled bets
37
$64K staked
Won
43.2%
95% range 29%–59%
Mostly bets on
other
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 34 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by period
- Sep 6 – Sep 23
- −$3.2K
- Sep 23 – Oct 11
- −$6.9K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2%
(2,094 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11 | BUY No
@ 98¢
Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026? |
Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026? | $1.2K |
| Oct 10 | BUY Spirit
@ 58¢
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Spirit (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs |
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Spirit (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs | $2.3K |
| Oct 10 | BUY Vitality
@ 77¢
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Vitality (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs |
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Vitality (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs | $2.3K |
| Oct 9 | SELL PARIVISION
@ 99.9¢
Dota 2: 1win vs PARIVISION (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs |
Dota 2: 1win vs PARIVISION (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs | $2.0K |
| Oct 9 | BUY Team Falcons
@ 42¢
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Spirit (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs |
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Spirit (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs | $1.7K |
| Oct 9 | BUY PARIVISION
@ 75¢
Dota 2: 1win vs PARIVISION - Game 1 Winner |
Dota 2: 1win vs PARIVISION - Game 1 Winner | $1.5K |
| Oct 9 | BUY FURIA
@ 42¢
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs |
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs | $1.3K |
| Oct 9 | BUY Vitality
@ 57¢
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs PARIVISION (+1.5) |
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs PARIVISION (+1.5) | $1.1K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.