Fake-Bitter
0xdc41c39b95453c943174f369926018f6963bdd7e
Fake-Bitter: −$135K on 995 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 55% (95% range 52%–58%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
−$135K
return −2.4%
Settled bets
995
$5.57M staked
Won
54.7%
95% range 52%–58%
Mostly bets on
politics/macro
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 993 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by 2 weeks
- Aug 20 – Sep 4
- +$63K
- Sep 4 – Sep 20
- −$224K
- Sep 20 – Oct 5
- +$27K
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0%
(2,053 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 6 | BUY Yes
@ 99¢
Will Argentina win on 2026-10-06? |
Will Argentina win on 2026-10-06? | $4.9K |
| Oct 6 | BUY Wild
@ 51¢
Wild vs. Sabres |
Wild vs. Sabres | $1.4K |
| Oct 6 | BUY Red Wings
@ 52¢
Senators vs. Red Wings |
Senators vs. Red Wings | $1.7K |
| Oct 6 | BUY Under
@ 61¢
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5 |
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5 | $1.1K |
| Oct 6 | BUY Yes
@ 53¢
Will United States win on 2026-10-06? |
Will United States win on 2026-10-06? | $1.1K |
| Oct 6 | BUY Over
@ 90¢
England vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 |
England vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 | $1.3K |
| Oct 6 | BUY Croatia
@ 48¢
Spread: Spain (-1.5) |
Spread: Spain (-1.5) | $2.0K |
| Oct 6 | BUY Under
@ 53¢
Utah vs. Devils: O/U 6.5 |
Utah vs. Devils: O/U 6.5 | $2.7K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.