Fake-Bitter
0xdc41c39b95453c943174f369926018f6963bdd7e
Fake-Bitter: −$135K on 995 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 55% (95% range 52%–58%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
−$135K
return −2.4%
Settled bets
995
$5.57M staked
Won
54.7%
95% range 52%–58%
Mostly bets on
politics/macro
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 993 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by 2 weeks
- Aug 20 – Sep 4
- +$63K
- Sep 4 – Sep 20
- −$224K
- Sep 20 – Oct 5
- +$27K
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0%
(2,053 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10 | BUY Lindenwood
@ 40¢
Southeast Missouri State vs. Lindenwood |
Southeast Missouri State vs. Lindenwood | $1.3K |
| Oct 10 | BUY Over
@ 56¢
RB Ōmiya Ardija vs. Vanraure Hachinohe FC: O/U 2.5 |
RB Ōmiya Ardija vs. Vanraure Hachinohe FC: O/U 2.5 | $1.3K |
| Oct 10 | BUY Utah State
@ 45¢
Spread: Utah State (-5.5) |
Spread: Utah State (-5.5) | $3.3K |
| Oct 9 | BUY Washington
@ 54¢
Spread: Washington (-2.5) |
Spread: Washington (-2.5) | $1.2K |
| Oct 9 | BUY Washington
@ 54¢
Spread: Washington (-2.5) |
Spread: Washington (-2.5) | $1.3K |
| Oct 9 | BUY Over
@ 64¢
Penguins vs. Blue Jackets: O/U 5.5 |
Penguins vs. Blue Jackets: O/U 5.5 | $1.0K |
| Oct 9 | BUY Yes
@ 40¢
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-10-09? |
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-10-09? | $1.5K |
| Oct 9 | BUY Over
@ 62¢
Oilers vs. Sharks: O/U 5.5 |
Oilers vs. Sharks: O/U 5.5 | $1.3K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.