Extroverted-Tofu

0x740159eced2aaf9edcb7fac8a0b31d18c0f847a5

Polymarket

Too few bets Check it on Polymarket ↗

Extroverted-Tofu: +$12K on 2 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 50% (95% range 10%–91%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.

Profit
+$12K
return +283.4%
Settled bets
2
$4.3K staked
Won
50.0%
95% range 10%–91%
Mostly bets on
politics/macro

Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by period
Sep 23 – Oct 11
+$12K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2% (2,094 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Oct 4 SELL Yes @ 97¢
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election? $4.5K
Oct 4 SELL Yes @ 96¢
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election? $5.2K
Oct 4 SELL No @ 94¢
Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?
Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election? $19K
Oct 2 BUY Yes @ 24¢
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election? $4.3K

All 4 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · run 1791710133, computed 2026-10-11 09:15 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1791710133 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed