Sarcastic-Commandment

0x8ebfdc251c6c378d4a3a54a8f15cebfa4b9183ce

Polymarket

Too few bets Check it on Polymarket ↗

Sarcastic-Commandment: −$170 on 2 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 0% (95% range 0%–66%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.

Profit
−$170
return —
Settled bets
2
$0 staked
Won
0.0%
95% range 0%–66%
Mostly bets on
other

Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by period
Sep 6 – Sep 23
−$82
Sep 23 – Oct 11
−$89
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2% (2,094 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Oct 4 SELL No @ 97¢
Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?
Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election? $2.9K
Sep 14 SELL Yes @ 93¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 7?
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 7? $1.1K

All 2 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · run 1791710133, computed 2026-10-11 09:15 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1791710133 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed