Polymarket market · Sports
Erste Bank Open: Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz
Resolved: Carlos Alcaraz won · See it on Polymarket ↗
17 whales traded $100K on this market since Oct 30, 71% of their buying on Carlos Alcaraz. Copying their buys off the order book we recorded about 5 minutes later would have cost 1.4¢ more per share, with 100% of the size there to buy. Carlos Alcaraz won, with 71% of the whale buying on it. Of the 15 whales whose whole position we captured, 10 made +$18K and 5 lost −$26K: −$8.0K between them. Biggest win: Hollow-Maggot-Sense, +$10K on Carlos Alcaraz. Biggest loss: Quixotic-Brow, −$8.9K on Tommy Paul.
The whales on this market
17 whales| Whale · record | Backed | Bought | Sold | Made on it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hollow-Maggot-Sense
1,516 settled bets Beat the odds* |
Carlos Alcaraz @ 64¢ | $22K | — | +$10K |
| Imaginative-River
91 settled bets Worse than the odds |
Carlos Alcaraz @ 99.9¢ | $10K | — | +$10 |
| Quixotic-Brow
247 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
Tommy Paul @ 32¢ | $8.9K | — | −$8.9K |
| Powerless-Savannah
3,124 settled bets Beat the odds* |
Carlos Alcaraz @ 89¢ | $8.6K | — | +$1.1K |
| Ajar-Thief-Rooster
110 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
Tommy Paul @ 38¢ | $8.0K | — | −$8.0K |
| Naughty-Tab
163 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
Carlos Alcaraz @ 75¢ | $6.4K | $1.4K | +$1.9K |
| Glaring-Salt
2,170 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
Carlos Alcaraz @ 77¢ | $7.7K | — | +$2.3K |
| Tough-Schooner
10 settled bets Too few bets |
Tommy Paul @ 20¢ | $6.8K | — | −$6.8K |
| Forked-Pricing
270 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
Carlos Alcaraz @ 86¢ | $6.5K | — | +$1.0K |
| Wrathful-Row
306 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
Carlos Alcaraz @ 85¢ | $2.8K | — | +$500 |
| Gleeful-Cauliflower
5,460 settled bets Beat the odds* |
Tommy Paul @ 29¢ | $2.1K | — | −$616 |
| Grateful-Chest
314 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
Tommy Paul @ 22¢ | $1.8K | — | −$1.8K |
| Petty-Sled
26 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
sold only | $0 | $1.7K | — |
| Brisk-Clockwork-Behalf
5,449 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
Carlos Alcaraz @ 90¢ | $1.5K | — | +$168 |
| Mad-Wound
104 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
Carlos Alcaraz @ 84¢ | $1.5K | — | +$286 |
| Alarming-Lawmaker
5 settled bets Too few bets |
Carlos Alcaraz @ 78¢ | $1.4K | — | +$395 |
| 0x19d7…8415
2 settled bets Too few bets |
sold only | $0 | $1.1K | — |
Where the whale money went
-
Carlos Alcaraz won$68K71% of whale buying · 11 buyers · $2.5K sold
-
Tommy Paul lost$28K29% of whale buying · 6 buyers · $1.7K sold
From the whale trades we capture ($1,000+) on this market, Oct 30, 2026. Whether it resolved, and each whale's record, are from the daily run. “Made on it” counts only trades we captured; a dash means part of the position escaped capture. How profit is counted.
Results and records from the run (1793430041).
More sports markets the whales bet on
All Sports →| Market | Whale money | Whales | Result | Last whale bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swiss Indoors Basel: Taylor Fritz vs Arthur Fils | $171K | 26 | Won: Taylor Fritz | |
| Swiss Indoors Basel: Holger Rune vs Valentin Vacherot | $163K | 28 | Won: Valentin Vacherot | |
| Courmayeur: Elsa Jacquemot vs Elizara Yaneva | $55K | 7 | Won: Elsa Jacquemot | |
| Guangzhou Open: Lilli Tagger vs Han Shi | $100K | 20 | Won: Lilli Tagger | |
| Rockets vs. Mavericks: O/U 223.5 | $58K | 5 | Won: Over | |
| Swiss Indoors Basel: Jerome Kym vs Jiri Lehecka | $70K | 15 | Won: Jiri Lehecka | |
| Erste Bank Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Daniil Medvedev | $90K | 15 | Won: Daniil Medvedev | |
| Swiss Indoors Basel: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Nuno Borges | $287K | 14 | Won: Jan-Lennard Struff |