Alarming-Lawmaker
Skill vs luck
Alarming-Lawmaker on Polymarket: 3 settled bets · won 100% (95% range 44%–100%) · profit +$1.1K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −11.2% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 24, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Alarming-Lawmaker: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x02d8495225a297157d25dbcf7ed9dd483bf80c91. Data CC BY 4.0.
Alarming-Lawmaker: +$1.1K on 3 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 100% (95% range 44%–100%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 3 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 7 – Oct 24
- +$1.1K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23 | BUY Taylor Fritz @ 80¢ | Lyon Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Taylor Fritz ↗ | $1.7K |
| Oct 23 | BUY Tommy Paul @ 77¢ | Lyon Open: Corentin Moutet vs Tommy Paul ↗ | $1.3K |
| Oct 22 | BUY Stefanos Tsitsipas
@ 80¢
Almaty Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs James Duckworth |
Almaty Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs James Duckworth | $1.1K |
All 3 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?