Liquid-Chocolate
Skill vs luck
Liquid-Chocolate on Polymarket: 2 settled bets · won 50% (95% range 10%–91%) · profit +$4.4K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −10.4% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 27, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Liquid-Chocolate: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 27, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x35d44846fb2e9bd1686b050a4cae30cde9b7f15b. Data CC BY 4.0.
Liquid-Chocolate: +$4.4K on 2 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 50% (95% range 10%–91%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 1 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Sep 23 – Oct 10
- +$7.4K
- Oct 10 – Oct 27
- −$3.0K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25 | BUY Yes @ 50¢ | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%? ↗ | $3.0K |
| Sep 23 | SELL No @ 59¢ | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? ↗ | $7.4K |
All 2 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?