Metallic-Lobster-Manipulation
Skill vs luck
Metallic-Lobster-Manipulation on Polymarket: 4 settled bets · won 25% (95% range 5%–70%) · profit +$8.1K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −10.4% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 27, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Metallic-Lobster-Manipulation: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 27, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x408216d9bd9e5762539cc6bd8db3dd97cca2efd6. Data CC BY 4.0.
Metallic-Lobster-Manipulation: +$8.1K on 4 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 25% (95% range 5%–70%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 3 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Sep 6 – Sep 23
- −$3.6K
- Sep 23 – Oct 10
- +$14K
- Oct 10 – Oct 27
- −$2.0K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24 | BUY Yes @ 43¢ | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%? ↗ | $2.0K |
| Oct 5 | BUY No @ 18¢ | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? ↗ | $3.0K |
| Oct 4 | SELL Yes @ 83¢ | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? ↗ | $3.1K |
| Oct 4 | BUY Yes @ 88¢ | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? ↗ | $3.3K |
| Sep 18 | BUY Yes @ 70¢ | Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? ↗ | $1.1K |
| Sep 18 | BUY Yes @ 72¢ | Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? ↗ | $2.5K |
All 6 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?