Obvious-Geyser-Cutlet
0xe8c4d68aff65b38cac46987b9b65e01eb47d395d
Obvious-Geyser-Cutlet: −$24K on 140 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 54% (95% range 46%–62%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
−$24K
return −8.2%
Settled bets
140
$287K staked
Won
54.3%
95% range 46%–62%
Mostly bets on
sports
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 140 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by 2 weeks
- Aug 20 – Sep 4
- −$13K
- Sep 4 – Sep 20
- −$10K
- Sep 20 – Oct 5
- −$841
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0%
(2,053 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9 | BUY Under
@ 54¢
Wyoming vs. San Jose State: 1H O/U 21.5 |
Wyoming vs. San Jose State: 1H O/U 21.5 | $1.4K |
| Oct 9 | BUY
@ 51¢
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Rafael Jodar AND Shanghai Rolex Masters: Sebastian Baez vs Valentin Vacherot |
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Rafael Jodar AND Shanghai Rolex Masters: Sebastian Baez vs Valentin Vacherot | $2.3K |
| Oct 8 | BUY No
@ 66¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%? |
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%? | $2.2K |
| Oct 7 | BUY
@ 52¢
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Marco Trungelliti vs Rei Sakamoto AND Shanghai Rolex Masters: Mattia Bellucci vs Yi Zhou |
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Marco Trungelliti vs Rei Sakamoto AND Shanghai Rolex Masters: Mattia Bellucci vs Yi Zhou | $1.5K |
| Oct 6 | BUY Blues
@ 58¢
Blues vs. Blackhawks |
Blues vs. Blackhawks | $2.0K |
| Oct 6 | BUY Galions
@ 65¢
Game Handicap: GAL (-1.5) vs BIG (+1.5) |
Game Handicap: GAL (-1.5) vs BIG (+1.5) | $1.0K |
| Oct 5 | BUY
@ 50¢
China Open: Novak Djokovic vs Alex de Minaur AND Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jiri Lehecka |
China Open: Novak Djokovic vs Alex de Minaur AND Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jiri Lehecka | $2.0K |
| Oct 5 | BUY 1WIN
@ 42¢
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs 1WIN - Map 2 Winner |
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs 1WIN - Map 2 Winner | $1.0K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.