Polymarket market · Other

US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?

Open as of the last daily run · See it on Polymarket ↗

15 whales traded $53K on this market since Oct 29, 81% of their buying on Yes. Copying their buys off the order book we recorded about 5 minutes later would have cost 5.2¢ more per share, with 63% of the size there to buy. It hadn't resolved as of the last daily run.

The whales on this market

15 whales
Whale · recordBackedBoughtSold
Few-Poppy
5 settled bets Too few bets
Yes @ 91¢ $7.6K —
Glaring-Inspiration
10 settled bets Too few bets
Yes @ 91¢ $6.5K —
Bountiful-Mare
2 settled bets Too few bets
No @ 39¢ $5.0K —
0x981b…b473
no settled record
Yes @ 95¢ $4.9K —
Altruistic-Gambling
13 settled bets Too few bets
Yes @ 97¢ $4.8K —
Personal-Bake
46 settled bets Can't tell from luck
Yes @ 89¢ $3.6K $1.2K
Downright-Website
26 settled bets Can't tell from luck
Yes @ 97¢ $3.6K —
Vengeful-Netsuke
24 settled bets Can't tell from luck
Yes @ 87¢ $2.8K —
Melodic-Alfalfa
1 settled bets Too few bets
sold only $0 $2.8K
Rowdy-Evening-Universe
5 settled bets Too few bets
Yes @ 84¢ $2.3K —
Bulky-Antler
21 settled bets Can't tell from luck
No @ 8¢ $2.2K —
Wilted-Clerk-Sunflower
6 settled bets Too few bets
Yes @ 98¢ $2.0K —
Smooth-Evolution
31 settled bets Can't tell from luck
Yes @ 91¢ $2.0K —
0xf7b7…e490
no settled record
No @ 60¢ $1.2K —
Ready-Progression
24 settled bets Too few bets
No @ 11¢ $1.0K —

Where the whale money went

  1. Yes
    $40K
    81% of whale buying · 10 buyers · $3.9K sold
  2. No
    $9.4K
    19% of whale buying · 4 buyers

From the whale trades we capture ($1,000+) on this market, Oct 29 to Nov 2, 2026. Whether it resolved, and each whale's record, are from the daily run. How profit is counted.

Results and records from the run (1793602824).

About this data · run 1793602824, computed 2026-11-02 07:00 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1793602824 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed